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Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in Emerging Markets | 財政政策與景氣循環


The fiscal policy is pro-cyclical in emerging markets. When the economy is during good (bad) times, the government spend more (less) money and adopt expansionary (tight) fiscal policy, which is harmful to the economy.

新興國家的財政政策是pro-cyclical,也就是當景氣好的時候,政府花錢實施寬鬆財政政策,景氣不好,又勒緊褲帶壓低政府支出,進而讓經濟情況更加不利。

On the contrary, the fiscal policy and government spending have negative relationship in industrial countries. However, some countries such as Greece and Portugal do not adopt countercyclical fiscal policy though they belong to the industrial countries.

相反的,工業化國家的財政政策和政府支出則呈現反向關係,也代表政府的財政政策是比較有效的,但深陷歐債風暴的幾個國家,雖屬於工業化國家,近年來的財政政策和GDP卻呈現正向的景氣循環。

From the graph, the model economy locates in the third quadrant. The correlation between real GDP and government spending is negative in both 1960-99 and 2000-14. Some countries such as Italy located in the second quadrant belonged to role model countries but do not adopt countercyclical fiscal policy recently.

若以圖片中座標軸來看,第三象限是財政政策的模範生,也就是在兩個時期1960–1999, 2000–2014, GDP和政府支出皆成反向關係,反而是第二象限的是走回頭路,像是義大利。